Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (61% H2H, 18 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Stastny 55.1% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 21-13 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 81.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 69.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 78.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 76.9%
76.9%
23.1%
Nelson
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
21
(34 meetings)
13
21
Nelson
Stastny
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
7
11
Nelson
Stastny
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
4
7
Nelson
Stastny
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
3
Nelson
Stastny
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
54.6% (10,616)
-6.7%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
59.1% (1,994)
-4.6%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
52.9% (1,119)
-9.1%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Stastny is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (8,871).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stastny
Home
50.0% (5,845)
55.9% (7,073)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
54.3% (6,705)
By Period
Nelson
Stastny
P1
48.7%
56.3%
P2
48.5%
55.4%
P3
47.7%
53.5%
OT
45.6%
62.9%
Final 5 min
47.8%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2023 | 2 | 05:54 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 3 | 15:48 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 01:46 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 2 | 06:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 2 | 06:11 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 11, 2022 | 3 | 12:59 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 11, 2022 | 1 | 17:26 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 11, 2022 | 1 | 04:02 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 19:46 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 18:59 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 18:30 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 14:53 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 14:50 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 08:08 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 2 | 01:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 1 | 09:22 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 1 | 01:23 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 3 | 10:37 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 3 | 05:21 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 2 | 14:17 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |