Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Stastny 56.3% (-10.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 54.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 53.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 57.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
Nelson
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Nelson
Stastny
Last 5: Nelson 2-3 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Stastny
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Stastny
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
1
Nelson
Stastny
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
57.5% (412)
-10.6%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
60.0% (65)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
44.4% (9)
-19.4%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Stastny is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (290).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stastny
Home
48.9% (521)
58.3% (276)
Away
45.5% (516)
56.7% (210)
By Period
Nelson
Stastny
P1
45.9%
63.7%
P2
48.0%
57.3%
P3
48.0%
50.4%
Final 5 min
45.3%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
57.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2023 | 2 | 05:54 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 3 | 15:48 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 01:46 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 2 | 06:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 2 | 06:11 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |