Scouting Report
Philipp Kurashev holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kurashev on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Kurashev shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Kurashev 47.3% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kurashev 57.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 61.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Nelson
Kurashev
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Nelson
Kurashev
Last 6: Nelson 3-3 Kurashev
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Kurashev
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kurashev
2
3
Nelson
Kurashev
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kurashev
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
46.3% (203)
-0.2%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
49.1% (57)
-14.6%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
35.7% (14)
-5.3%
On power play, Kurashev has a +14.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kurashev shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Kurashev is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (171).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kurashev
Home
48.7% (419)
45.0% (140)
Away
41.3% (368)
47.8% (134)
By Period
Nelson
Kurashev
P1
44.6%
51.9%
P2
47.3%
44.3%
P3
43.0%
43.6%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Kurashev
38.0%▼
43.5%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2024 | 3 | 06:38 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Philipp Kurashev |
| Jan 19, 2024 | 2 | 19:14 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Philipp Kurashev |
| Jan 19, 2024 | 1 | 05:57 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Philipp Kurashev |