Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Wright on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Wright 41.4% (+10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wright 72.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 58.4%
Neutral zone
Wright 56.9%
Result
Shane Wright favored at 63.3%
36.7%
63.3%
Nelson
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Nelson
Wright
Last 5: Nelson 2-3 Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wright
0
3
Nelson
Wright
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Wright
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Wright
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
39.5% (453)
+11.2%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
42.4% (59)
+16.2%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
0.0% (1)
+43.4%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +43.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Nelson shoots left. Wright is 38.8% vs left-shot opponents (394).
Home / Away
Nelson
Wright
Home
52.3% (621)
39.5% (286)
Away
48.9% (618)
40.1% (227)
By Period
Nelson
Wright
P1
48.4%
39.9%
P2
53.5%
37.1%
P3
50.3%
42.9%
OT
41.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
40.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Wright
44.0%▲
42.5%
39.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 04:41 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 16:56 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:54 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 15:34 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 13:19 | Offensive | Shane Wright |