Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Wright on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Wright shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Wright 43.3% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wright 58.2%
Defensive zone
Wright 50.1%
Neutral zone
Wright 50.4%
Result
Shane Wright favored at 54.2%
45.8%
54.2%
Nelson
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Nelson
Wright
Last 6: Nelson 3-3 Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wright
0
3
Nelson
Wright
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Wright
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Wright
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
42.6% (1,318)
+5.3%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
45.8% (131)
+8.7%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
33.3% (6)
+10.5%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Wright is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,072).
Home / Away
Nelson
Wright
Home
50.0% (5,845)
44.2% (746)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
41.5% (709)
By Period
Nelson
Wright
P1
48.7%
44.4%
P2
48.5%
40.7%
P3
47.7%
44.0%
OT
45.6%
20.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
41.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Wright
44.0%▲
42.5%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 04:41 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 16:56 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:54 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 15:34 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 13:19 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 15:25 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |