Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nosek on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Nosek 53.6% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Nosek leads 10-8 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 65.6%
Defensive zone
Nosek 60.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.9%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 52.5%
47.5%
52.5%
Nelson
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
10
(18 meetings)
8
10
Nelson
Nosek
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Nosek
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
2
6
Nelson
Nosek
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
3
Nelson
Nosek
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
54.9% (2,674)
-7.0%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
44.7% (47)
+9.8%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
47.4% (424)
-3.6%
On power play, Nelson has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Nosek is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,942).
Home / Away
Nelson
Nosek
Home
50.0% (5,845)
52.7% (1,631)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
54.8% (1,514)
By Period
Nelson
Nosek
P1
48.7%
52.3%
P2
48.5%
54.0%
P3
47.7%
54.6%
OT
45.6%
75.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 14:51 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 04:39 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 14:17 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 14:37 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 03:25 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 00:56 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 1 | 13:59 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 1 | 13:52 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 1 | 00:39 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 3 | 08:34 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 01:01 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 1 | 19:26 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 2 | 14:28 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 3 | 11:36 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 3 | 00:26 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 2 | 08:50 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 1 | 12:04 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 12, 2018 | 2 | 08:07 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |