Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nosek on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Nosek 51.4% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 67.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 56.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 57.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 58.8%
58.8%
41.2%
Nelson
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Nelson
Nosek
Last 7: Nelson 2-5 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
1
Nelson
Nosek
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
2
Nelson
Nosek
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
2
Nelson
Nosek
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
54.4% (215)
-8.3%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
0.0% (1)
+34.5%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
23.5% (17)
+6.9%
On power play, Nelson has a +34.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Nosek is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (154).
Home / Away
Nelson
Nosek
Home
48.7% (419)
50.4% (127)
Away
41.3% (368)
53.8% (106)
By Period
Nelson
Nosek
P1
44.6%
51.4%
P2
47.3%
51.3%
P3
43.0%
53.2%
Final 5 min
39.4%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 14:17 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 14:37 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 03:25 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 00:56 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 1 | 13:59 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 1 | 13:52 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 1 | 00:39 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |