Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.2% vs 44.4%). Nelson wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Johnson 45.7% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 56.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 57.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 58.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 58.7%
58.7%
41.3%
Nelson
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Nelson
Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Johnson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
44.6% (285)
+1.5%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
46.7% (60)
-12.2%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
16.7% (6)
+13.7%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Nelson shoots left. Johnson is 43.6% vs left-shot opponents (273).
Home / Away
Nelson
Johnson
Home
48.7% (419)
50.8% (179)
Away
41.3% (368)
37.8% (172)
By Period
Nelson
Johnson
P1
44.6%
41.3%
P2
47.3%
41.8%
P3
43.0%
49.6%
OT
100.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2024 | 1 | 07:49 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |