Scouting Report
Tyler Johnson holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Johnson 50.7% (-4.0%)
Offensive zone
Johnson 55.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 68.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 54.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 55.6%
55.6%
44.4%
Nelson
Johnson
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
47.4% (78)
-0.5%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
57.6% (33)
-0.2%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
100.0% (2)
-75.0%
On penalty kill, Johnson has a +75.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Johnson is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (76).
Home / Away
Nelson
Johnson
Home
48.9% (521)
50.9% (57)
Away
45.5% (516)
51.8% (56)
By Period
Nelson
Johnson
P1
45.9%
44.1%
P2
48.0%
59.4%
P3
48.0%
52.3%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
45.3%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%