Scouting Report
Tyler Johnson holds a +11.5% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Johnson 51.4% (-11.5%)
Offensive zone
Nelson 60.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 62.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 57.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 60.4%
60.4%
39.6%
Nelson
Johnson
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
63.6% (11)
-12.3%
On even strength, Johnson has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Johnson is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (9).
Home / Away
Nelson
Johnson
Home
52.5% (590)
62.5% (8)
Away
51.7% (619)
66.7% (3)
By Period
Nelson
Johnson
P2
54.4%
85.7%
P3
51.4%
25.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
100.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
63.6%