Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings). Jarnkrok wins 45.4% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jarnkrok 48.1% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 18-6 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Jarnkrok 93.9%
Defensive zone
Jarnkrok 87.1%
Neutral zone
Jarnkrok 86.8%
Result
Calle Jarnkrok favored at 89.9%
89.9%
10.1%
Jarnkrok
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
18
(24 meetings)
6
18
Jarnkrok
Pavelski
Last 10: Jarnkrok 2-8 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
9
Jarnkrok
Pavelski
10 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Jarnkrok
Pavelski
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
5
Jarnkrok
Pavelski
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jarnkrok
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (3,352)
53.6% (8,791)
-4.3%
Power Play
51.9% (258)
58.2% (2,122)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
40.2% (625)
50.9% (1,138)
-10.7%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Jarnkrok is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,270).
Jarnkrok shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Home / Away
Jarnkrok
Pavelski
Home
50.6% (2,253)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
45.3% (1,982)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Jarnkrok
Pavelski
P1
47.8%
53.5%
P2
48.0%
55.2%
P3
48.8%
53.9%
OT
40.5%
52.3%
Final 5 min
48.8%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jarnkrok
52.0%▲
48.5%
48.1%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 09:23 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 18:18 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 2 | 10:06 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 12, 2022 | 1 | 11:53 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 21, 2021 | 3 | 03:33 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 1 | 03:38 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 1, 2017 | 3 | 01:21 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 1, 2017 | 1 | 09:17 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 25, 2017 | 1 | 03:33 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Mar 11, 2017 | 1 | 18:57 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Mar 11, 2017 | 1 | 13:35 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 29, 2016 | 2 | 15:33 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 6, 2016 | 3 | 06:11 | Neutral | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Feb 6, 2016 | 3 | 05:16 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 6, 2016 | 2 | 03:49 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 6, 2016 | 1 | 02:13 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 28, 2015 | 3 | 11:25 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Feb 17, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 17, 2015 | 2 | 02:56 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 3 | 15:12 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |