Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Jarnkrok wins 43.7% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jarnkrok 51.0% vs Pavelski 52.2% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jarnkrok 60.5%
Defensive zone
Jarnkrok 71.9%
Neutral zone
Jarnkrok 67.1%
Result
Calle Jarnkrok favored at 66.5%
66.5%
33.5%
Jarnkrok
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Jarnkrok
Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Jarnkrok
Pavelski
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Jarnkrok
Pavelski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Jarnkrok
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jarnkrok
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (326)
52.5% (570)
-0.7%
Power Play
54.4% (79)
54.5% (145)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (62)
44.4% (36)
-0.9%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Jarnkrok is 43.7% vs right-shot opponents (142).
Jarnkrok shoots right. Pavelski is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (163).
Home / Away
Jarnkrok
Pavelski
Home
53.0% (281)
55.0% (391)
Away
48.4% (186)
49.7% (360)
By Period
Jarnkrok
Pavelski
P1
51.6%
50.8%
P2
50.6%
55.0%
P3
51.5%
52.0%
OT
50.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
52.1%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jarnkrok
50.0%▲
48.0%
51.2%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 18:18 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 2 | 10:06 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 12, 2022 | 1 | 11:53 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |