Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Jarnkrok wins 58.1% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jarnkrok 49.6% vs Pavelski 50.9% (-1.9%)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 53.6%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 60.2%
Neutral zone
Jarnkrok 51.3%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 54.1%
45.9%
54.1%
Jarnkrok
Pavelski
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jarnkrok
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (82)
51.5% (594)
+2.2%
Power Play
10.0% (10)
51.7% (87)
-41.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (40)
28.6% (14)
+21.4%
On power play, Pavelski has a +41.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Jarnkrok is 58.1% vs right-shot opponents (31).
Jarnkrok shoots right. Pavelski is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (168).
Home / Away
Jarnkrok
Pavelski
Home
50.7% (71)
53.1% (339)
Away
47.5% (61)
49.2% (356)
By Period
Jarnkrok
Pavelski
P1
52.1%
53.8%
P2
40.5%
47.8%
P3
56.1%
50.2%
OT
0.0%
71.4%
Final 5 min
56.7%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jarnkrok
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.2%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%