Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Verhaeghe wins 40.7% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Verhaeghe 45.5% vs Paul 52.2% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Verhaeghe 88.5%
Defensive zone
Paul 53.8%
Neutral zone
Verhaeghe 72.7%
Result
Carter Verhaeghe favored at 71.2%
71.2%
28.8%
Verhaeghe
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Verhaeghe
Paul
Last 7: Verhaeghe 2-5 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Verhaeghe
1
0
Verhaeghe
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Verhaeghe
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
4
Verhaeghe
Paul
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Verhaeghe
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (293)
52.5% (3,796)
-9.2%
Power Play
47.6% (63)
56.5% (480)
-8.9%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
46.7% (574)
+53.3%
On penalty kill, Verhaeghe has a +53.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Verhaeghe is 40.7% vs left-shot opponents (226).
Verhaeghe shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Home / Away
Verhaeghe
Paul
Home
45.7% (162)
52.7% (2,412)
Away
43.1% (195)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Verhaeghe
Paul
P1
45.1%
53.9%
P2
45.6%
51.0%
P3
42.3%
52.0%
OT
25.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.2%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Verhaeghe
34.0%▼
40.0%
44.3%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 10:53 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 03:31 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 07:21 | Offensive | Carter Verhaeghe |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 08:53 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Carter Verhaeghe |