Scouting Report
Casey Cizikas holds a +20.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Cizikas on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cizikas wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Mercer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cizikas 55.0% vs Mercer 37.5% (+20.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cizikas 57.1%
Defensive zone
Cizikas 92.4%
Neutral zone
Cizikas 84.9%
Result
Casey Cizikas favored at 81.7%
81.7%
18.3%
Cizikas
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Cizikas
Mercer
Last 8: Cizikas 5-3 Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
0
2
Cizikas
Mercer
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cizikas
4
0
Cizikas
Mercer
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cizikas
Mercer
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cizikas
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
57.8% (767)
35.4% (548)
+22.4%
Power Play
66.7% (18)
42.9% (35)
+23.8%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (176)
0.0% (7)
+44.9%
On penalty kill, Cizikas has a +44.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Cizikas is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (343).
Cizikas shoots left. Mercer is 34.6% vs left-shot opponents (407).
Home / Away
Cizikas
Mercer
Home
56.6% (484)
39.9% (283)
Away
54.5% (477)
31.3% (307)
By Period
Cizikas
Mercer
P1
57.2%
37.7%
P2
54.7%
32.1%
P3
54.8%
37.7%
OT
100.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.4%
33.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cizikas
60.0%▼
61.5%
55.6%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
35.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2022 | 3 | 14:53 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 3 | 00:25 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 2 | 16:14 | Defensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 2 | 14:58 | Neutral | Casey Cizikas |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 2 | 18:30 | Defensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 2 | 07:42 | Defensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 3 | 06:09 | Defensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 05:03 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |