Scouting Report
Casey Cizikas holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Cizikas wins 54.5% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cizikas 53.5% vs Gourde 46.0% (+8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gourde 73.6%
Defensive zone
Gourde 66.2%
Neutral zone
Gourde 66.9%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 68.8%
31.2%
68.8%
Cizikas
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Cizikas
Gourde
Last 7: Cizikas 2-5 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cizikas
Gourde
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
4
Cizikas
Gourde
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cizikas
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (524)
47.2% (654)
+7.2%
Power Play
100.0% (3)
45.0% (20)
+55.0%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (42)
32.2% (87)
+15.4%
On power play, Cizikas has a +55.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Cizikas is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (391).
Cizikas shoots left. Gourde is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (501).
Home / Away
Cizikas
Gourde
Home
53.3% (270)
44.1% (322)
Away
54.8% (299)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Cizikas
Gourde
P1
57.2%
42.4%
P2
56.3%
49.8%
P3
49.5%
44.3%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cizikas
60.0%▼
61.5%
54.1%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 17:16 | Neutral | Casey Cizikas |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 12:09 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:09 | Offensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 10:16 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 08:10 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 19:38 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |