Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.2% vs 44.6%). Look for Nazar on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 46.6% vs right-shot opponents — Nazar shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 44.7% vs Nazar 45.7% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 66.5%
Defensive zone
Nazar 54.2%
Neutral zone
Nazar 52.6%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
Mittelstadt
Nazar
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Mittelstadt
Nazar
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
2
0
Mittelstadt
Nazar
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
1
2
Mittelstadt
Nazar
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nazar
1
2
Mittelstadt
Nazar
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Nazar
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (886)
45.2% (314)
-0.5%
Power Play
40.2% (112)
39.5% (38)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
44.8% (29)
-4.8%
On penalty kill, Nazar has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nazar shoots right. Mittelstadt is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Nazar is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (284).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Nazar
Home
46.0% (491)
43.4% (196)
Away
42.4% (512)
45.9% (185)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Nazar
P1
44.0%
47.3%
P2
46.4%
40.3%
P3
41.9%
46.7%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
39.3%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
44.2%
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2025 | 2 | 10:17 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 1 | 17:40 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 1 | 17:32 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |