Scouting Report
Casey Mittelstadt holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Mittelstadt on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Nazar shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 50.9% vs Nazar 46.6% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 76.8%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 69.6%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 65.4%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 67.9%
67.9%
32.1%
Mittelstadt
Nazar
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Mittelstadt
Nazar
Last 5: Mittelstadt 5-0 Nazar
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
3
0
Mittelstadt
Nazar
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
2
0
Mittelstadt
Nazar
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Nazar
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (139)
46.9% (533)
+3.5%
Power Play
54.8% (31)
49.2% (132)
+5.6%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
25.6% (39)
+74.4%
On penalty kill, Mittelstadt has a +74.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nazar shoots right. Mittelstadt is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (68).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Nazar is 43.8% vs left-shot opponents (504).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Nazar
Home
59.3% (91)
45.0% (329)
Away
42.5% (80)
47.2% (375)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Nazar
P1
48.8%
47.2%
P2
49.1%
43.1%
P3
56.7%
46.8%
OT
33.3%
75.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
51.5%
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:32 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:27 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:22 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 04:45 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 04:39 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |