Scouting Report
Casey Mittelstadt holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Suzuki on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Suzuki shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 50.9% vs Suzuki 50.3% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 54.3%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 62.8%
Neutral zone
Suzuki 53.7%
Result
Nick Suzuki favored at 50.4%
49.6%
50.4%
Mittelstadt
Suzuki
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Mittelstadt
Suzuki
Last 5: Mittelstadt 2-3 Suzuki
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
1
0
Mittelstadt
Suzuki
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Suzuki
1
3
Mittelstadt
Suzuki
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Suzuki
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (139)
51.3% (904)
-0.9%
Power Play
54.8% (31)
49.8% (265)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
36.8% (57)
+63.2%
On penalty kill, Mittelstadt has a +63.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Suzuki shoots right. Mittelstadt is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (68).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Suzuki is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (921).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Suzuki
Home
59.3% (91)
50.6% (603)
Away
42.5% (80)
50.1% (623)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Suzuki
P1
48.8%
52.3%
P2
49.1%
47.5%
P3
56.7%
51.1%
OT
33.3%
48.6%
Final 5 min
54.5%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
51.5%
Suzuki
62.0%▲
55.5%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 14:07 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 11:45 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 15:36 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 19:55 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |