Chandler Stephenson vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stephenson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stephenson wins 54.5% vs right-shot opponents — Pageau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephenson 52.0% vs Pageau 58.9% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 61.0%
Defensive zone
Pageau 86.7%
Neutral zone
Pageau 82.3%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 77.0%
23.0%
77.0%
Stephenson
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Stephenson
Pageau
Last 8: Stephenson 6-2 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stephenson
3
0
Stephenson
Pageau
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stephenson
3
2
Stephenson
Pageau
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephenson
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (801)
59.5% (676)
-7.4%
Power Play
62.0% (242)
67.6% (34)
-5.6%
Penalty Kill
39.9% (183)
60.1% (213)
-20.2%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +20.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Stephenson is 54.5% vs right-shot opponents (475).
Stephenson shoots left. Pageau is 60.7% vs left-shot opponents (680).
Home / Away
Stephenson
Pageau
Home
53.1% (672)
58.2% (364)
Away
51.1% (554)
61.0% (559)
By Period
Stephenson
Pageau
P1
54.6%
54.4%
P2
51.3%
62.3%
P3
51.2%
62.0%
OT
50.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
63.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephenson
56.0%▲
52.5%
52.2%
Pageau
58.0%▼
59.5%
59.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 08:21 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 08:12 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 15:50 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 09:36 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 08:48 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 04:08 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 01:08 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 01:04 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |