Chandler Stephenson vs Matt Duchene
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.2% vs 52.0%). Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephenson 52.0% vs Duchene 51.6% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 77.6%
Defensive zone
Stephenson 57.0%
Neutral zone
Duchene 58.5%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 65.5%
34.5%
65.5%
Stephenson
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Stephenson
Duchene
Last 6: Stephenson 1-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
3
Stephenson
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Stephenson
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Stephenson
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephenson
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (801)
51.2% (324)
+0.9%
Power Play
62.0% (242)
60.4% (53)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
39.9% (183)
16.7% (6)
+23.2%
On penalty kill, Stephenson has a +23.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Stephenson is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (751).
Stephenson shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Home / Away
Stephenson
Duchene
Home
53.1% (672)
51.6% (182)
Away
51.1% (554)
52.2% (201)
By Period
Stephenson
Duchene
P1
54.6%
49.6%
P2
51.3%
56.2%
P3
51.2%
48.6%
OT
50.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephenson
56.0%▲
52.5%
52.2%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 12:30 | Neutral | Chandler Stephenson |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 09:10 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 06:10 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 03:28 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 01:39 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 15:05 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |