Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Matthews wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Coyle shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Coyle 48.8% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 14-5 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 96.9%
Defensive zone
Matthews 86.6%
Neutral zone
Matthews 89.6%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 91.6%
91.6%
8.4%
Matthews
Coyle
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
5
(19 meetings)
14
5
Matthews
Coyle
Last 10: Matthews 8-2 Coyle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
6
1
Matthews
Coyle
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Matthews
Coyle
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
6
2
Matthews
Coyle
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Coyle
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
49.5% (576)
+8.8%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
54.2% (48)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
43.4% (145)
+7.3%
On even strength, Matthews has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Coyle shoots right. Matthews is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Matthews shoots left. Coyle is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Home / Away
Matthews
Coyle
Home
59.1% (528)
47.4% (409)
Away
55.1% (695)
50.0% (360)
By Period
Matthews
Coyle
P1
56.2%
50.8%
P2
58.1%
46.0%
P3
56.4%
48.4%
OT
50.0%
64.3%
Final 5 min
55.5%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2025 | 3 | 02:53 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 16:16 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 08:37 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 05:30 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 02:49 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 15:35 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 08:21 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 26, 2024 | OT | 01:39 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 26, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 15:47 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 08:42 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 17:58 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 04:04 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 03:54 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 19:27 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 16:19 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |