Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 49.2% vs Stepan 54.8% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 62.2%
Defensive zone
Stepan 87.2%
Neutral zone
Stepan 63.2%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 72.9%
27.1%
72.9%
Coyle
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Coyle
Stepan
Last 7: Coyle 5-2 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
4
0
Coyle
Stepan
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
2
Coyle
Stepan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
50.6% (921)
54.5% (374)
-3.9%
Power Play
51.0% (96)
0.0% (2)
+51.0%
Penalty Kill
30.1% (83)
64.7% (68)
-34.6%
On power play, Coyle has a +51.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Coyle is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Coyle shoots right. Stepan is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Home / Away
Coyle
Stepan
Home
51.8% (517)
54.5% (222)
Away
46.7% (583)
57.2% (222)
By Period
Coyle
Stepan
P1
49.2%
57.5%
P2
52.8%
54.7%
P3
44.8%
55.9%
Final 5 min
50.0%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
49.1%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2022 | 3 | 10:14 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 3 | 10:10 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 3 | 09:56 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 2 | 18:36 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 1 | 15:20 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 18, 2022 | 3 | 17:08 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 18, 2022 | 3 | 10:21 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |