Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Coyle wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 52.4% vs Stepan 53.4% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 66.7%
Defensive zone
Coyle 53.2%
Neutral zone
Stepan 50.5%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
Coyle
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Coyle
Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
Stepan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Coyle
Stepan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (849)
55.3% (358)
-2.6%
Power Play
66.7% (39)
0.0% (3)
+66.7%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (131)
50.8% (61)
-2.7%
On power play, Coyle has a +66.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Coyle is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (300).
Coyle shoots right. Stepan is 52.8% vs right-shot opponents (108).
Home / Away
Coyle
Stepan
Home
53.3% (512)
57.7% (213)
Away
51.9% (507)
50.7% (209)
By Period
Coyle
Stepan
P1
53.8%
56.3%
P2
47.8%
48.9%
P3
56.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
53.1%
57.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
52.6%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2023 | 3 | 13:27 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 26, 2023 | 1 | 19:11 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 04:06 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |