Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Coyle wins 46.6% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 48.8% vs Larkin 54.2% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 74.0%
Defensive zone
Coyle 65.6%
Neutral zone
Larkin 50.8%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
Coyle
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Coyle
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Coyle
Larkin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
2
0
Coyle
Larkin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Coyle
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (576)
52.6% (1,117)
-3.1%
Power Play
54.2% (48)
60.7% (305)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (145)
55.9% (177)
-12.5%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Coyle is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Coyle shoots right. Larkin is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Coyle
Larkin
Home
47.4% (409)
54.7% (783)
Away
50.0% (360)
54.3% (816)
By Period
Coyle
Larkin
P1
50.8%
55.9%
P2
46.0%
56.1%
P3
48.4%
51.1%
OT
64.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
46.7%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
48.6%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 10:59 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 04:20 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 18:18 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 18:07 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |