Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Coyle wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 52.4% vs Carter 58.5% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Coyle 83.4%
Defensive zone
Coyle 82.6%
Neutral zone
Coyle 79.6%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 80.9%
80.9%
19.1%
Coyle
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
8
(9 meetings)
1
8
Coyle
Carter
Last 9: Coyle 1-8 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
4
Coyle
Carter
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
1
4
Coyle
Carter
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (849)
59.7% (727)
-7.0%
Power Play
66.7% (39)
68.1% (72)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (131)
53.2% (139)
-5.1%
On even strength, Carter has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Coyle is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (300).
Coyle shoots right. Carter is 60.7% vs right-shot opponents (298).
Home / Away
Coyle
Carter
Home
53.3% (512)
58.7% (455)
Away
51.9% (507)
60.0% (483)
By Period
Coyle
Carter
P1
53.8%
61.3%
P2
47.8%
57.1%
P3
56.7%
59.8%
OT
38.5%
57.1%
Final 5 min
53.1%
60.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
52.6%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
59.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 00:35 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 1 | 08:51 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 1 | 03:37 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 3 | 17:36 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 3 | 16:00 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 2 | 16:09 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 2 | 08:40 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 2 | 08:31 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 1 | 08:27 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |