Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.2% vs 50.0%). Look for McTavish on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.2% vs McTavish 50.0% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 73.5%
Defensive zone
Coyle 80.9%
Neutral zone
Coyle 52.8%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 57.4%
42.6%
57.4%
Coyle
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Coyle
McTavish
Last 5: Coyle 3-2 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
1
2
Coyle
McTavish
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
McTavish
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
McTavish
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (612)
48.7% (532)
+2.9%
Power Play
42.6% (47)
59.1% (88)
-16.5%
Penalty Kill
46.6% (146)
33.3% (6)
+13.3%
On power play, McTavish has a +16.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Coyle is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (609).
Coyle shoots right. McTavish is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (223).
Home / Away
Coyle
McTavish
Home
47.5% (394)
54.8% (303)
Away
52.8% (411)
45.5% (323)
By Period
Coyle
McTavish
P1
49.6%
51.5%
P2
48.9%
49.5%
P3
52.0%
49.3%
OT
50.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
45.8%
47.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
54.0%▲
49.5%
50.2%
McTavish
48.0%▼
51.5%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 17:49 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 13:36 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 09:55 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 03:29 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 07:29 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |