Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McTavish on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs McTavish 49.0% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 73.3%
Defensive zone
Coyle 79.7%
Neutral zone
McTavish 51.4%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 58.3%
41.7%
58.3%
Coyle
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Coyle
McTavish
Last 5: Coyle 3-2 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
1
2
Coyle
McTavish
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
McTavish
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
McTavish
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (811)
47.6% (616)
+4.7%
Power Play
44.3% (61)
57.8% (102)
-13.5%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (181)
33.3% (6)
+11.5%
On power play, McTavish has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Coyle is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (797).
Coyle shoots right. McTavish is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (256).
Home / Away
Coyle
McTavish
Home
49.0% (537)
52.2% (389)
Away
52.1% (516)
45.1% (335)
By Period
Coyle
McTavish
P1
48.7%
50.0%
P2
49.6%
47.9%
P3
53.1%
49.0%
OT
45.5%
40.0%
Final 5 min
49.1%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
50.5%
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 17:49 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 13:36 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 09:55 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 03:29 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 07:29 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |