Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs Cates 45.5% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 64.0%
Defensive zone
Coyle 80.2%
Neutral zone
Coyle 61.1%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 65.5%
65.5%
34.5%
Coyle
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Coyle
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Coyle
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
2
0
Coyle
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (811)
45.4% (712)
+6.9%
Power Play
44.3% (61)
42.2% (102)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (181)
44.7% (47)
+0.1%
On even strength, Coyle has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Coyle is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (797).
Coyle shoots right. Cates is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Coyle
Cates
Home
49.0% (537)
46.3% (423)
Away
52.1% (516)
43.6% (438)
By Period
Coyle
Cates
P1
48.7%
46.3%
P2
49.6%
47.1%
P3
53.1%
42.1%
OT
45.5%
18.2%
Final 5 min
49.1%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
50.5%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 12:18 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 09:41 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 05:38 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |