Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 48.8% vs Cates 43.2% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 75.4%
Defensive zone
Cates 70.1%
Neutral zone
Cates 69.6%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 71.1%
28.9%
71.1%
Coyle
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
10
(14 meetings)
4
10
Coyle
Cates
Last 10: Coyle 2-8 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
2
Coyle
Cates
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
3
4
Coyle
Cates
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
0
4
Coyle
Cates
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (7,856)
44.1% (2,742)
+5.3%
Power Play
50.0% (792)
43.0% (242)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (1,090)
34.9% (373)
+8.7%
On penalty kill, Coyle has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Coyle is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (6,979).
Coyle shoots right. Cates is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,073).
Home / Away
Coyle
Cates
Home
49.8% (4,835)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
47.9% (4,903)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Coyle
Cates
P1
49.4%
44.5%
P2
48.3%
43.5%
P3
48.8%
41.2%
OT
49.0%
29.4%
Final 5 min
48.4%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
48.8%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 12:18 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 09:41 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 05:38 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 1 | 19:06 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 1 | 11:31 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 1 | 00:24 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 2 | 17:12 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 2 | 15:51 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 1 | 19:18 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 1 | 01:14 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 3 | 19:17 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 11:25 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 05:06 | Neutral | Noah Cates |