Scouting Report
Ryan Carpenter holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 49.2% vs Carpenter 51.2% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Coyle 60.7%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 79.9%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 62.0%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Coyle
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Coyle
Carpenter
Last 5: Coyle 4-1 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
3
0
Coyle
Carpenter
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
1
Coyle
Carpenter
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
Carpenter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
50.6% (921)
53.2% (299)
-2.6%
Power Play
51.0% (96)
33.3% (3)
+17.7%
Penalty Kill
30.1% (83)
46.5% (86)
-16.4%
On power play, Coyle has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Coyle is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Coyle shoots right. Carpenter is 57.7% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Home / Away
Coyle
Carpenter
Home
51.8% (517)
54.6% (207)
Away
46.7% (583)
48.1% (181)
By Period
Coyle
Carpenter
P1
49.2%
52.3%
P2
52.8%
51.5%
P3
44.8%
50.8%
Final 5 min
50.0%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
49.1%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2022 | 2 | 17:55 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 2 | 00:07 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 1 | 01:54 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 2 | 08:45 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |