Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Coyle wins 56.1% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 51.5% vs Carpenter 48.2% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Coyle 67.3%
Defensive zone
Coyle 51.9%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 51.0%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 62.2%
62.2%
37.8%
Coyle
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Coyle
Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
2
0
Coyle
Carpenter
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
1
Coyle
Carpenter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (1,046)
48.8% (404)
+4.2%
Power Play
57.6% (144)
100.0% (1)
-42.4%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (287)
43.6% (101)
+0.0%
On power play, Carpenter has a +42.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Coyle is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Coyle shoots right. Carpenter is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Home / Away
Coyle
Carpenter
Home
54.5% (719)
48.9% (274)
Away
48.8% (758)
46.6% (232)
By Period
Coyle
Carpenter
P1
51.1%
51.9%
P2
50.0%
49.4%
P3
53.3%
41.8%
OT
57.1%
100.0%
Final 5 min
48.8%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
51.6%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 19:05 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 08:52 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 08:28 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |