Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Coyle wins 56.1% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 51.5% vs Johansen 52.8% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 67.8%
Defensive zone
Coyle 52.9%
Neutral zone
Johansen 52.5%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 67.8%
32.2%
67.8%
Coyle
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Coyle
Johansen
Last 5: Coyle 3-2 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
3
2
Coyle
Johansen
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (1,046)
51.9% (597)
+1.1%
Power Play
57.6% (144)
57.9% (133)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (287)
54.3% (81)
-10.7%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Coyle is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Coyle shoots right. Johansen is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (227).
Home / Away
Coyle
Johansen
Home
54.5% (719)
55.8% (387)
Away
48.8% (758)
50.7% (424)
By Period
Coyle
Johansen
P1
51.1%
50.0%
P2
50.0%
56.2%
P3
53.3%
52.6%
OT
57.1%
75.0%
Final 5 min
48.8%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
51.6%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2024 | 3 | 19:07 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 1 | 10:45 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 8, 2024 | 3 | 16:39 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 8, 2024 | 1 | 06:26 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 8, 2024 | 1 | 03:23 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |