Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 52.4% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Coyle leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 85.9%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 68.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 67.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 73.6%
26.4%
73.6%
Coyle
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Coyle
O'Reilly
Last 10: Coyle 7-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
2
1
Coyle
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
2
1
Coyle
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
3
1
Coyle
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (849)
56.1% (690)
-3.4%
Power Play
66.7% (39)
64.6% (96)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (131)
45.9% (109)
+2.2%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +3.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Coyle is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (719).
Coyle shoots right. O'Reilly is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Home / Away
Coyle
O'Reilly
Home
53.3% (512)
58.3% (408)
Away
51.9% (507)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Coyle
O'Reilly
P1
53.8%
57.7%
P2
47.8%
54.8%
P3
56.7%
55.2%
OT
38.5%
45.5%
Final 5 min
53.1%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
52.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 07:46 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 02:19 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 3 | 19:08 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 3 | 00:45 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 2 | 18:52 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 2 | 12:31 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 2 | 11:41 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 2 | 11:37 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 1 | 05:00 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |