Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Coyle wins 46.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 48.8% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 76.7%
Defensive zone
Coyle 75.1%
Neutral zone
Coyle 54.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 66.3%
33.7%
66.3%
Coyle
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Coyle
O'Reilly
Last 5: Coyle 2-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Coyle
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (576)
56.2% (983)
-6.7%
Power Play
54.2% (48)
55.5% (254)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (145)
52.0% (102)
-8.6%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Coyle is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Coyle shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
Coyle
O'Reilly
Home
47.4% (409)
56.2% (697)
Away
50.0% (360)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Coyle
O'Reilly
P1
50.8%
54.5%
P2
46.0%
55.5%
P3
48.4%
57.1%
OT
64.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
46.7%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
48.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 14:35 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 16:32 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 17:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 00:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |