Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Coyle wins 54.3% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs Johnston 48.5% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnston 67.1%
Defensive zone
Coyle 68.2%
Neutral zone
Coyle 51.0%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 54.3%
45.7%
54.3%
Coyle
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Coyle
Johnston
Last 7: Coyle 4-3 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
2
1
Coyle
Johnston
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
Coyle
Johnston
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
2
1
Coyle
Johnston
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (811)
47.8% (623)
+4.5%
Power Play
44.3% (61)
50.8% (63)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (181)
51.4% (35)
-6.6%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Coyle is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (256).
Coyle shoots right. Johnston is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (185).
Home / Away
Coyle
Johnston
Home
49.0% (537)
47.6% (351)
Away
52.1% (516)
48.9% (370)
By Period
Coyle
Johnston
P1
48.7%
49.6%
P2
49.6%
47.3%
P3
53.1%
48.0%
OT
45.5%
46.7%
Final 5 min
49.1%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
50.5%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 00:10 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 14:47 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 05:41 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 11:58 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 09:03 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 08:56 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |