Scouting Report
Chris Tierney holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Matthews wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Tierney shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 47.1% vs Tierney 48.7% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 72.3%
Defensive zone
Tierney 80.4%
Neutral zone
Tierney 54.5%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 60.4%
60.4%
39.6%
Matthews
Tierney
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Matthews
Tierney
Last 9: Matthews 7-2 Tierney
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
1
Matthews
Tierney
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
1
Matthews
Tierney
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Tierney
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (1,000)
49.2% (675)
-3.0%
Power Play
53.6% (125)
57.1% (21)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
14.3% (7)
43.8% (130)
-29.5%
On penalty kill, Tierney has a +29.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tierney shoots left. Matthews is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (683).
Matthews shoots left. Tierney is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (506).
Home / Away
Matthews
Tierney
Home
48.4% (562)
50.7% (420)
Away
45.3% (570)
46.3% (406)
By Period
Matthews
Tierney
P1
51.3%
45.2%
P2
44.5%
50.0%
P3
44.6%
50.8%
Final 5 min
47.9%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
46.8%
Tierney
60.0%▲
56.5%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 2 | 18:17 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 1 | 17:49 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 3 | 14:50 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 3 | 12:21 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 3 | 05:50 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 3 | 05:35 | Offensive | Chris Tierney |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 1 | 06:40 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 1 | 06:30 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |