Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tierney on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Tierney wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tierney 46.2% vs McDavid 49.6% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Tierney leads 18-12 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 83.6%
Defensive zone
Tierney 62.1%
Neutral zone
McDavid 53.7%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 55.5%
44.5%
55.5%
Tierney
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
12
(30 meetings)
18
12
Tierney
McDavid
Last 10: Tierney 5-5 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
4
Tierney
McDavid
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tierney
6
2
Tierney
McDavid
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tierney
10
6
Tierney
McDavid
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tierney
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (487)
49.1% (621)
-2.7%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
78.6% (14)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
38.3% (94)
0.0% (3)
+38.3%
On penalty kill, Tierney has a +38.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Tierney is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Tierney shoots left. McDavid is 50.2% vs left-shot opponents (456).
Home / Away
Tierney
McDavid
Home
49.3% (286)
56.1% (330)
Away
42.1% (304)
42.5% (308)
By Period
Tierney
McDavid
P1
48.5%
49.2%
P2
41.1%
47.4%
P3
48.1%
53.0%
Final 5 min
36.2%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tierney
60.0%▲
56.5%
45.6%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2021 | 2 | 17:26 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |
| Mar 12, 2021 | 1 | 15:51 | Offensive | Chris Tierney |
| Mar 12, 2021 | 1 | 13:28 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 12, 2021 | 1 | 03:06 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |
| Mar 8, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 8, 2021 | 2 | 14:53 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 8, 2021 | 2 | 07:34 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Mar 8, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |
| Mar 8, 2021 | 1 | 10:44 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 8, 2021 | 1 | 00:06 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 8, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 3 | 15:35 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 3 | 15:14 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 3 | 11:03 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 2 | 11:58 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 1 | 19:43 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 1 | 16:43 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 1 | 16:22 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |