Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tierney 49.8% vs Pavelski 52.2% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 55.2%
Defensive zone
Tierney 71.7%
Neutral zone
Tierney 59.3%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
Tierney
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Tierney
Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
3
Tierney
Pavelski
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tierney
1
0
Tierney
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tierney
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (454)
52.5% (570)
-2.1%
Power Play
48.3% (58)
54.5% (145)
-6.2%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
44.4% (36)
-7.6%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Tierney is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (216).
Tierney shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Home / Away
Tierney
Pavelski
Home
53.3% (289)
55.0% (391)
Away
45.5% (242)
49.7% (360)
By Period
Tierney
Pavelski
P1
50.9%
50.8%
P2
46.7%
55.0%
P3
52.1%
52.0%
Final 5 min
44.6%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tierney
60.0%▲
56.5%
49.7%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2021 | 3 | 13:18 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 3 | 03:30 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 2 | 05:09 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 2 | 05:04 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |