Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Tierney wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tierney 49.1% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 12-4 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Tierney 83.0%
Defensive zone
Tierney 92.4%
Neutral zone
Tierney 82.0%
Result
Chris Tierney favored at 86.4%
86.4%
13.6%
Tierney
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
12
(16 meetings)
4
12
Tierney
Pavelski
Last 10: Tierney 4-6 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
7
Tierney
Pavelski
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
4
Tierney
Pavelski
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Tierney
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tierney
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (5,342)
53.6% (8,791)
-4.3%
Power Play
52.3% (342)
58.2% (2,122)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
46.6% (857)
50.9% (1,138)
-4.3%
On power play, Pavelski has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Tierney is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (2,404).
Tierney shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Tierney
Pavelski
Home
50.6% (3,270)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
47.7% (3,271)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Tierney
Pavelski
P1
49.3%
53.5%
P2
47.7%
55.2%
P3
50.5%
53.9%
OT
47.4%
52.3%
Final 5 min
46.7%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tierney
60.0%▲
56.5%
49.1%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 09:06 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 09:02 | Offensive | Chris Tierney |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 17:28 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 3 | 13:18 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 3 | 03:30 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 2 | 05:09 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 2 | 05:04 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 16, 2020 | 1 | 06:21 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 21, 2019 | 2 | 14:24 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 3 | 17:10 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 3 | 14:03 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 3 | 09:26 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 2 | 15:41 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 2 | 12:17 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 3 | 02:50 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 2 | 13:34 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |