Scouting Report
Chris Tierney holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tierney 54.8% vs Pavelski 50.9% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 52.8%
Defensive zone
Tierney 64.0%
Neutral zone
Tierney 50.8%
Result
Chris Tierney favored at 58.4%
58.4%
41.6%
Tierney
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Tierney
Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tierney
1
0
Tierney
Pavelski
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tierney
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tierney
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (179)
51.5% (594)
+5.5%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
51.7% (87)
-51.7%
Penalty Kill
64.3% (14)
28.6% (14)
+35.7%
On power play, Pavelski has a +51.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Tierney is 52.3% vs right-shot opponents (65).
Tierney shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Home / Away
Tierney
Pavelski
Home
62.3% (77)
53.1% (339)
Away
53.8% (117)
49.2% (356)
By Period
Tierney
Pavelski
P1
61.1%
53.8%
P2
60.0%
47.8%
P3
49.1%
50.2%
Final 5 min
62.5%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tierney
60.0%▲
56.5%
57.2%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 09:06 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 09:02 | Offensive | Chris Tierney |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 17:28 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |