Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tierney on offensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 17 meetings). Tierney wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tierney 49.1% vs Dowd 50.7% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Tierney leads 21-19 in 40 meetings
Offensive zone
Tierney 64.8%
Defensive zone
Tierney 68.3%
Neutral zone
Dowd 57.1%
Result
Chris Tierney favored at 58.6%
58.6%
41.4%
Tierney
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
19
(40 meetings)
21
19
Tierney
Dowd
Last 10: Tierney 6-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tierney
11
6
Tierney
Dowd
17 total
Defensive Zone
Even
5
5
Tierney
Dowd
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
5
8
Tierney
Dowd
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tierney
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (5,342)
52.4% (6,009)
-3.1%
Power Play
52.3% (342)
56.1% (164)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
46.6% (857)
44.1% (1,635)
+2.5%
On power play, Dowd has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Tierney is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (2,404).
Tierney shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
Tierney
Dowd
Home
50.6% (3,270)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
47.7% (3,271)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Tierney
Dowd
P1
49.3%
51.7%
P2
47.7%
50.4%
P3
50.5%
50.3%
OT
47.4%
45.9%
Final 5 min
46.7%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tierney
60.0%▲
56.5%
49.1%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2024 | 2 | 14:48 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 1 | 16:42 | Offensive | Chris Tierney |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 1 | 01:54 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 14:27 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 02:07 | Offensive | Chris Tierney |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 02:01 | Offensive | Chris Tierney |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 09:51 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2022 | 3 | 09:09 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 2 | 18:13 | Offensive | Chris Tierney |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 2 | 18:07 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 2 | 08:32 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 1 | 06:17 | Offensive | Chris Tierney |
| Feb 26, 2019 | 1 | 04:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 2 | 16:11 | Offensive | Chris Tierney |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 2 | 12:05 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 1 | 11:46 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 1 | 11:32 | Offensive | Chris Tierney |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 1 | 06:41 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 17, 2018 | 1 | 14:58 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 3 | 08:24 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |