Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Tierney wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tierney 46.2% vs Stastny 55.6% (-10.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tierney 63.2%
Defensive zone
Tierney 77.9%
Neutral zone
Tierney 69.5%
Result
Chris Tierney favored at 66.6%
66.6%
33.4%
Tierney
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Tierney
Stastny
Last 8: Tierney 2-6 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
4
Tierney
Stastny
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tierney
1
0
Tierney
Stastny
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
2
Tierney
Stastny
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tierney
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
45.7% (648)
56.5% (967)
-10.8%
Power Play
66.7% (12)
58.4% (125)
+8.3%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (145)
50.8% (128)
-6.7%
On even strength, Stastny has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Tierney is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (549).
Tierney shoots left. Stastny is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (765).
Home / Away
Tierney
Stastny
Home
48.5% (394)
56.8% (590)
Away
43.1% (411)
55.4% (630)
By Period
Tierney
Stastny
P1
48.7%
59.7%
P2
49.0%
54.8%
P3
40.6%
53.8%
Final 5 min
48.0%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tierney
60.0%▲
56.5%
45.7%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
56.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2016 | 3 | 11:37 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 22, 2016 | 3 | 03:02 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 22, 2016 | 2 | 18:55 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 22, 2016 | 2 | 04:20 | Offensive | Chris Tierney |
| Feb 22, 2016 | 3 | 19:37 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 4, 2016 | 3 | 01:19 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 4, 2016 | 2 | 16:13 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Feb 4, 2016 | 2 | 02:48 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |