Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 13 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tierney 49.1% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 22-16 in 38 meetings
Offensive zone
Tierney 81.5%
Defensive zone
Tierney 76.0%
Neutral zone
Tierney 79.6%
Result
Chris Tierney favored at 78.9%
78.9%
21.1%
Tierney
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
22
(38 meetings)
16
22
Tierney
O'Reilly
Last 10: Tierney 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
10
Tierney
O'Reilly
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tierney
9
5
Tierney
O'Reilly
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
7
Tierney
O'Reilly
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tierney
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (5,342)
56.2% (15,260)
-6.9%
Power Play
52.3% (342)
58.8% (3,445)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
46.6% (857)
51.4% (2,811)
-4.8%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Tierney is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (4,137).
Tierney shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Tierney
O'Reilly
Home
50.6% (3,270)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
47.7% (3,271)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Tierney
O'Reilly
P1
49.3%
55.6%
P2
47.7%
57.0%
P3
50.5%
55.1%
OT
47.4%
62.2%
Final 5 min
46.7%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tierney
60.0%▲
56.5%
49.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 04:26 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 04:18 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 00:27 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 00:22 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 07:49 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 3 | 16:41 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 3 | 16:31 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 2 | 10:46 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 3 | 19:48 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 3 | 19:41 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 1 | 09:40 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |
| Mar 14, 2019 | 1 | 07:11 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Mar 14, 2019 | 1 | 05:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 14, 2019 | 1 | 05:04 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 14, 2019 | 1 | 00:40 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 2 | 19:53 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 1 | 18:32 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 1 | 07:50 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 1 | 07:46 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 3 | 17:21 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |