Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Tierney wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tierney 47.9% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 68.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 60.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 56.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 57.5%
42.5%
57.5%
Tierney
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Tierney
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tierney
1
0
Tierney
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Tierney
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tierney
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (193)
56.1% (690)
-9.5%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
64.6% (96)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
47.5% (40)
45.9% (109)
+1.6%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Tierney is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (135).
Tierney shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
Tierney
O'Reilly
Home
47.9% (121)
58.3% (408)
Away
46.1% (115)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Tierney
O'Reilly
P1
44.1%
57.7%
P2
50.0%
54.8%
P3
46.3%
55.2%
Final 5 min
52.4%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tierney
60.0%▲
56.5%
47.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 00:27 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 00:22 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 07:49 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |