Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tierney 50.8% vs O'Reilly 56.5% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tierney 73.2%
Defensive zone
Tierney 76.9%
Neutral zone
Tierney 73.2%
Result
Chris Tierney favored at 74.1%
74.1%
25.9%
Tierney
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Tierney
O'Reilly
Last 8: Tierney 1-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Tierney
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tierney
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Tierney
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tierney
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (844)
57.1% (1,367)
-5.0%
Power Play
50.7% (75)
59.4% (286)
-8.7%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (124)
52.5% (257)
-9.8%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Tierney is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (719).
Tierney shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,201).
Home / Away
Tierney
O'Reilly
Home
51.2% (521)
59.2% (936)
Away
50.6% (522)
54.6% (974)
By Period
Tierney
O'Reilly
P1
49.3%
57.3%
P2
50.4%
57.5%
P3
53.4%
55.0%
OT
0.0%
71.1%
Final 5 min
42.5%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tierney
60.0%▲
56.5%
50.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2019 | 1 | 07:11 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Mar 14, 2019 | 1 | 05:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 14, 2019 | 1 | 05:04 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 14, 2019 | 1 | 00:40 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 2 | 19:53 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 1 | 18:32 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 1 | 07:50 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 1 | 07:46 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |