Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.0% vs 47.9%). Look for Tierney on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tierney wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tierney 47.9% vs Lorentz 48.2% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tierney 53.4%
Defensive zone
Tierney 53.4%
Neutral zone
Tierney 53.6%
Result
Chris Tierney favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
Tierney
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Tierney
Lorentz
Last 6: Tierney 4-2 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tierney
Lorentz
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tierney
3
1
Tierney
Lorentz
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tierney
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (193)
48.3% (497)
-1.7%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
63.6% (11)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
47.5% (40)
38.5% (39)
+9.0%
On penalty kill, Tierney has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Tierney is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (135).
Tierney shoots left. Lorentz is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (344).
Home / Away
Tierney
Lorentz
Home
47.9% (121)
50.4% (238)
Away
46.1% (115)
46.0% (309)
By Period
Tierney
Lorentz
P1
44.1%
49.1%
P2
50.0%
48.0%
P3
46.3%
47.2%
Final 5 min
52.4%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tierney
60.0%▲
56.5%
47.0%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2023 | 3 | 11:49 | Offensive | Chris Tierney |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 3 | 02:58 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 2 | 03:03 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 2 | 02:48 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 1 | 10:56 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 1 | 10:43 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |