Scouting Report
Chris Tierney holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Tierney wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Toffoli shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tierney 49.1% vs Toffoli 43.0% (+8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toffoli 85.5%
Defensive zone
Tierney 81.1%
Neutral zone
Toffoli 52.5%
Result
Tyler Toffoli favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
Tierney
Toffoli
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Tierney
Toffoli
Last 5: Tierney 2-3 Toffoli
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toffoli
0
2
Tierney
Toffoli
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tierney
2
0
Tierney
Toffoli
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toffoli
0
1
Tierney
Toffoli
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tierney
Toffoli
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (5,342)
41.2% (274)
+8.1%
Power Play
52.3% (342)
45.0% (40)
+7.3%
Penalty Kill
46.6% (857)
26.3% (19)
+20.3%
On penalty kill, Tierney has a +20.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toffoli shoots right. Tierney is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (2,404).
Tierney shoots left. Toffoli is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (225).
Home / Away
Tierney
Toffoli
Home
50.6% (3,270)
44.5% (155)
Away
47.7% (3,271)
37.6% (178)
By Period
Tierney
Toffoli
P1
49.3%
47.4%
P2
47.7%
39.8%
P3
50.5%
32.9%
OT
47.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
46.7%
33.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tierney
60.0%▲
56.5%
49.1%
Toffoli
38.0%▼
42.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2021 | 2 | 08:46 | Offensive | Tyler Toffoli |
| Feb 23, 2021 | 3 | 19:31 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 1 | 16:21 | Offensive | Tyler Toffoli |
| Feb 4, 2021 | 2 | 16:07 | Neutral | Tyler Toffoli |
| Feb 4, 2021 | 1 | 14:25 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |