Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Wagner on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wagner 49.1% vs Duchene 52.8% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 81.9%
Defensive zone
Wagner 60.3%
Neutral zone
Duchene 56.7%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 57.6%
42.4%
57.6%
Wagner
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Wagner
Duchene
Last 9: Wagner 5-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
3
Wagner
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Wagner
4
0
Wagner
Duchene
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Wagner
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wagner
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (332)
52.6% (1,112)
-1.1%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
56.0% (193)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (129)
49.0% (49)
-7.1%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Wagner is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (334).
Wagner shoots right. Duchene is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (481).
Home / Away
Wagner
Duchene
Home
49.8% (233)
55.7% (652)
Away
48.1% (237)
50.4% (702)
By Period
Wagner
Duchene
P1
45.9%
51.4%
P2
47.8%
53.9%
P3
52.7%
53.3%
OT
42.9%
55.6%
Final 5 min
50.4%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wagner
40.0%▼
49.5%
48.9%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2018 | 3 | 19:33 | Defensive | Chris Wagner |
| Mar 27, 2018 | 3 | 12:13 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 27, 2018 | 2 | 09:06 | Defensive | Chris Wagner |
| Mar 27, 2018 | 1 | 09:55 | Defensive | Chris Wagner |
| Mar 27, 2018 | 1 | 06:15 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 6, 2017 | 2 | 11:49 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 6, 2017 | 2 | 00:04 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 6, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chris Wagner |
| Oct 13, 2017 | 1 | 19:21 | Defensive | Chris Wagner |