Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wagner 49.0% vs Duchene 54.1% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 9-9 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 78.7%
Defensive zone
Wagner 73.4%
Neutral zone
Duchene 53.3%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 52.9%
47.1%
52.9%
Wagner
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
9
(18 meetings)
9
9
Wagner
Duchene
Last 10: Wagner 6-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
6
Wagner
Duchene
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Wagner
6
0
Wagner
Duchene
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Wagner
Duchene
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wagner
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (1,243)
53.9% (10,396)
-3.1%
Power Play
40.0% (20)
56.9% (1,665)
-16.9%
Penalty Kill
42.0% (307)
49.1% (468)
-7.1%
On power play, Duchene has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Wagner is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,162).
Wagner shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Home / Away
Wagner
Duchene
Home
49.8% (817)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
47.9% (753)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Wagner
Duchene
P1
48.6%
54.5%
P2
48.6%
54.5%
P3
49.5%
53.4%
OT
50.0%
56.3%
Final 5 min
49.2%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wagner
40.0%▼
49.5%
48.9%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 15:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 3 | 09:21 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 2 | 04:02 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 19:28 | Defensive | Chris Wagner |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 1 | 18:57 | Neutral | Chris Wagner |
| Oct 23, 2018 | 3 | 00:21 | Neutral | Chris Wagner |
| Mar 27, 2018 | 3 | 19:33 | Defensive | Chris Wagner |
| Mar 27, 2018 | 3 | 12:13 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 27, 2018 | 2 | 09:06 | Defensive | Chris Wagner |
| Mar 27, 2018 | 1 | 09:55 | Defensive | Chris Wagner |
| Mar 27, 2018 | 1 | 06:15 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 6, 2017 | 2 | 11:49 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 6, 2017 | 2 | 00:04 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 6, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chris Wagner |
| Oct 13, 2017 | 1 | 19:21 | Defensive | Chris Wagner |
| Oct 16, 2015 | 2 | 19:06 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 16, 2015 | 1 | 15:02 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 16, 2015 | 1 | 14:55 | Defensive | Chris Wagner |